In a followup from their much-discussed (by me here) May memo, Pozsar and Sweeney predict “A Turbulent Exit” when the Fed begins to raise rates. FT Alphaville and Bloomberg both appreciate the importance of the memo, but focus attention on the exchange rate dimension, and so miss the main point. Let’s walk through the argument more slowly, so as to
Read moreIt’s hard to short China, but not so hard to short China’s currency, and that’s a problem for the central bank. We’ve all heard about PBOC intervention in the spot exchange market, where the central bank is selling some of its vast horde of USD Treasury securities and buying RMB (thus shrinking its own balance sheet, since RMB are its
Read moreA summary of the 3rd annual joint conference of the People’s Bank of China and the International Monetary Fund offers a snapshot of the state of debate. So-called “renminbi internationalization” has been official policy since 2009. By the end of this year, expect to see the launch of a new “China International Payments System” to facilitate use of RMB as a
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